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What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis

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  • Giuliodori, Massimo
  • Beetsma, Roel

Abstract

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski decomposition and a structural VAR, both of which lead to the same results. Then, we turn to study the cross-border spill-overs of fiscal shocks via the trade channel. Fiscal expansions in Germany, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of monetary union, we also shut off the effects via the short-term interest rate and the nominal exchange rate and find a slight strengthening on average of the cross-country spill-overs from a fiscal expansion. These results suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the possibility of enhanced fiscal coordination. JEL Classification: E62, E63, F42

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0325.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040325

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Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Fiscal shocks; Impulse responses; monetary policy; spill-overs;

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  1. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
  2. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  3. Favero, Carlo A, 2002. "How do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IMF Working Papers 01/178, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  7. Xavier Debrun, 2000. "Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 323-358, October.
  8. Artis, Michael J & Winkler, Bernhard, 1997. "The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the Credibility of the European Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 1688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Effects Of Fiscal Policy Shocks In The European Transition Economies," Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 141-157, December.
  2. Krogstrup, Signe & Wyplosz, Charles, 2010. "A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 269-278, February.
  3. Peter Claeys & Rosina Moreno & Jordi Suriñach, 2008. "Fiscal policy and interest rates: the role of financial and economic integration," IREA Working Papers 200810, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  4. Gernot J. Mueller, 2004. "Understanding the Dynamic Effects of Government Spending on Foreign Trade," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute ECO2004/27, European University Institute.
  5. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2007. "Government debt spillovers in a monetary union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 135-154, August.
  6. Serbanoiu, Georgian Valentin, 2012. "Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy," MPRA Paper 40947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Krogstrup, Signe & Wyplosz, Charles, 2006. "A Common Pool Theory of Deficit Bias Correction," CEPR Discussion Papers 5866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
  9. Fabien Rondeau & Christophe Tavéra, 2005. "Interdépendance macro-économique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 25-39.

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