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Fundamentals and joint currency crises

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Author Info
Philipp Hartmann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstr. 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Stefan Straetmans () (University of Maastricht - Limburg Institute of Financial Economics (LIFE), Faculty of Economics - Finance Department, P.O. Box 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands)
Caspar G. de Vries () (Faculty of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals' distributions exhibit light tails (like e. g. the normal). However, if the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 324.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040324

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Related research
Keywords: Financial Crises; Currency market linkages; Fundamentals; Heavy Tails; Asymptotoc Dependence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other
C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-80, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2001. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Acharya, Viral V & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marco Lombardi & Giorgio Calzolari, 2006. "Indirect estimation of alpha-stable stochastic volatility models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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  3. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-322, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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