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Fundamentals and joint currency crises

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Abstract

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals' distributions exhibit light tails (like e. g. the normal). However, if the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 324.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040324

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Keywords: Financial Crises; Currency market linkages; Fundamentals; Heavy Tails; Asymptotoc Dependence;

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References

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  2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
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Cited by:
  1. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank.
  2. Sawischlewski, Katja & Menkhoff, Lukas & Beckmann, Daniela, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  3. Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 346, European Central Bank.
  4. Lombardi, Marco J. & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2009. "Indirect estimation of [alpha]-stable stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2298-2308, April.

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