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Fiscal policy and inflation volatility

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    Abstract

    Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern. These include higher risk premia, hedging costs and unforeseen redistribution of wealth. This paper presents panel estimations for a sample of OECD countries which suggest that activist fiscal policies may have an important impact on CPI inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from country-specific GARCH models, and across different data frequencies, time periods and econometric methodologies. From a policy perspective, these results point to the possibility of further destabilising effects of discretionary fiscal policies, in addition to their potential to destabilise output.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 317.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040317

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    Keywords: Inflation volatility; Fiscal policy;

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    Cited by:
    1. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
    2. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Political Instability and Inflation Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 2/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Szilárd Erhart & Harmen Lehment & Jose L. Vasquez Paz, 2007. "Monetary Policy Committee Size and Inflation Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1377, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad Mazhar & Ali, Amanat & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Panel Data Analysis for selected Saarc Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-170, September.
    5. Talpos, Ioan & Dima, Bogdan & Mutascu, Mihai, 2006. "The Fiscal Policy And The Stability Of The Nominal Sector: The Romanian Case," MPRA Paper 5689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. David Fielding, 2010. "Non-monetary Determinants of Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 111-139, January.
    7. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    8. Christian Merkl & Tom Schmitz, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatilities and the Labor Market: First Results from the Euro Experiment," Kiel Working Papers 1511, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    9. Harald Badinger, 2006. "Fiscal shocks, output dynamics and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for Austria (1983–2002)," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 267-284, December.
    10. Vratislav Izák, 2005. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation in the Transition Countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 3-16.

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