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Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy

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  • Derviz, Alexis

Abstract

The paper proposes a multi-factor international asset pricing model in which the exchange rate is allowed to be co-determined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated to other priced risks in the economy. The significance of this factor can be established as long as one is able to observe a proxy for the foreign cash order flow. Then, the asset pricing model is decomposed into the standard ICCAPM no-arbitrage setup characterized by a pricing kernel, in which, however, the “autarky” exchange rate is unobserved, and an additional equation that links this autarchic currency price with the FX order flow. The model is put in the state space form. The unobserved variables span the macroeconomic risk factors with an impact on the asset markets and determine the dynamics of the pricing kernel, the autarchic exchange rate and the FX order flow. A comparison of models allowing for an independent OF risk factor with a restricted one, where the forex order flow plays no role, should disclose the existence of a “nonfundamental” source of a systematic divergence of the observed and the autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns. The model is calibrated and tested on the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate in a setting with seven Czech and euro area asset returns. JEL Classification: F31, F41, G12, G15

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0314.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040314

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Related research

Keywords: exchange rate; latent risk; order flow; pricing kernel; state space;

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References

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  1. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
  3. Alexis Derviz, 2003. "Components of the Czech Koruna Risk Premium in a Multiple-Dealer FX Market," Working Papers 2003/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  5. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
  6. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2003. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Alexis Derviz, 2002. "The uncovered parity properties of the czech koruna," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2002(1).
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Cited by:
  1. Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2004. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 0371, European Central Bank.
  2. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
  3. Ondřej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Working Papers IES 76, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
  4. Jan Brùha & Alexis Derviz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 318-343, July.
  5. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp781, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2012. "Behavioural and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(2), pages 147-166.
  7. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.

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