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Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

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Author Info
Fabio Canova () (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business, Jaume I building, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27 E-08005-Barcelona, Spain)
Matteo Ciccarelli () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstr. 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Eva Ortega () (Research Department, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington, Ottawa, ON K1A 0G9, Canada.)
Abstract

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phases but, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s..

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 312.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040312

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycle Indicators Panel Data Bayesian methods

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  2. John H. Cochrane, 1992. "A Test of Consumption Insurance," NBER Working Papers 2642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael Binder, Cheng Hsiao, and M. Hashem Pesaran, 2001. "Estimation and Inference in Short Panel Vector Autoregressions with Unit Roots and Cointegration," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 36, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
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  11. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 427-437. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pedro José Pérez & José Ramón García & Luisa Escriche, 2005. "Importancia De Las Perturbaciones Externas En La Economía Española Tras La Integración: ¿Tamaño Del Shock O Grado De Respuesta?," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  3. Darvas, Zsolt & Rose, Andrew K & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," CEPR Discussion Papers 5188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2005. "Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0524, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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