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Current account dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach

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Author Info
Matthieu Bussière () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstr. 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstr. 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Author-Name: Gernot J. Müller () (Department of Economics, European University Institute,Via della Piazzuola 43, I-50133 Florence)

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Abstract

The paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to include two important stylised facts: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, the paper derives a closed form solution for consumption in the presence of habit persistence and liquidity constraints, which allows us to obtain a dynamic model for the current account where fiscal deficits have an effect. The model is estimated for a panel of 33 countries, including the ten EU acceding countries and structural current account positions are derived. A parsimonious specification including relative income, relative investment and the fiscal balance explains well past current account developments. A key finding of the paper is that, from an intertemporal perspective, current accounts in most acceding countries are currently broadly in line with their structural current account positions.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 311.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040311

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Related research
Keywords: Current account; Habit persistence; Liquidity constraints; Panel regressions; Acceding countries.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, . "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 06/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  3. Balázs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0638, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Daniel Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 06/276, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christiane Nickel & Katja Funke, 2006. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study," IMF Working Papers 06/147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nikolay Gueorguiev & Christoph Duenwald & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2007. "The impact of the National Bank of Romania Monetary Policy on the Balance of Payments," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 26-43, June. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2007. "Decomposition of external capital inflows and outflows in the small open transition economy (The case analysis of the Slovak republic)," MPRA Paper 7248, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. George A. Zombanakis & Constantinos Stylianou & Andreas S. Andreou, 2009. "The Greek Current Account Deficit:Is it Sustainable after all?," Working Papers 98, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rubaszek, Michal, 2005. "Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty," MPRA Paper 126, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June. [Downloadable!]
  14. Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 346, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2007. "Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 349-374, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Jens R. Clausen & Magda E. Kandil, 2005. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "How Excessive Are External Imbalances In Selected Transition Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(3), pages 243-267. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2008. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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