Current account dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach
Abstract
The paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to include two important stylised facts: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, the paper derives a closed form solution for consumption in the presence of habit persistence and liquidity constraints, which allows us to obtain a dynamic model for the current account where fiscal deficits have an effect. The model is estimated for a panel of 33 countries, including the ten EU acceding countries and structural current account positions are derived. A parsimonious specification including relative income, relative investment and the fiscal balance explains well past current account developments. A key finding of the paper is that, from an intertemporal perspective, current accounts in most acceding countries are currently broadly in line with their structural current account positions.Download Info
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 311.Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040311
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Related research
Keywords: Current account; Habit persistence; Liquidity constraints; Panel regressions; Acceding countries.;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-10-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2005-10-04 (International Finance)
References
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