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Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

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  • Strauch, Rolf
  • Hallerberg, Mark
  • von Hagen, Jürgen

Abstract

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles. JEL Classification: C53, E17, H62

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0307.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040307

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Keywords: budget processes; Fiscal forecasting; forecast evaluation; Stability and Growth Pact;

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  1. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0077, European Central Bank.
  2. Mark Hallerberg & Rolf Strauch, 2002. "On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe," Empirica, Springer, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 183-207, September.
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