A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting
AbstractIn the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an “ideal” core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E52
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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Other versions of this item:
- Claudio Morana, 2007. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 163-169.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2005-10-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-EEC-2005-10-07 (European Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2005-10-26 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2005-10-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-10-07 (Monetary Economics)
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