On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy
AbstractA number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two models are observationally equivalent. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51
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Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Other versions of this item:
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
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