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On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

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  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E. A.

Abstract

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two models are observationally equivalent. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0277.

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Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030277

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Keywords: Identification; indeterminacy;

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References

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  1. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
  2. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  3. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  5. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Weder, Mark, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 4191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carrillo, Julio & Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  3. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  4. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  5. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 0586, European Central Bank.
  10. Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Indeterminacy Produces Determinacy," IDEI Working Papers 333, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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