On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

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On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

Author Info

Andreas Beyer () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Roger E.A. Farmer () (UCLA, Dept. of Economics, 8283 Bunche Hall, Box 951477, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477.)

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Abstract

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two models are observationally equivalent. JEL Classification: C39; C62; D51.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 277.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030277

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Paper
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 1992. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 646, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Volker Wieland & Gunter Coenen, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 138, Society for Computational Economics.
- Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 3895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Working Paper Series 218, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28. [Downloadable!]
Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999. [Downloadable!]
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over the Euro Area, when Countries are Heterogeneous," Macroeconomics 0309018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the Euro area; when countries are heterogeneous," Working Paper Series 260, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 586, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Jagjit Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "Sunspots and Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Identification with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Carrillo, Julio & Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Castelnuovo , Efrem & Greco , Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Weder, Mark, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 4191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Mark Weder, 2005. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Economic History 0510002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
- Mark Weder, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 53, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
- Mark Weder, 2006. "A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L., 2007. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0722, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. " On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," CDMA Working Paper Series 0603, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Indeterminacy Produces Determinacy," IDEI Working Papers 333, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]

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