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Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks

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Author Info
Andreas Beyer () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Roger E.A. Farmer () (UCLA, dept. of Economics, 8283 Bunche Hall, Box 951477, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477, USA.)

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Abstract

We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. As an application of our method we estimate the parameters of a model of the US monetary transmission mechanism. We estimate a vector autoregression and find that its parameters are unstable. However, using our proposed identification method we are able to attribute instability in the parameters of the VAR solely to changes in the parameters of the policy rule. We recover parameter estimates of the recoverable structure and we demonstrate that these parameters are invariant to changes in policy. Since the recoverable structure includes future expectations as explanatory variables our parameter estimates are not subject to the Lucas [24] critique of econometric policy evaluation. JEL Classification: C51; E43; E52; E58.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 275.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030275

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Related research
Keywords: Fed; Monetary transmission; identification; structural breaks; recoverable structure.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: What role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 586, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 152, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Matt Klaeffling, 2003. "Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 257, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A & Henry, Jérôme & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Factor Analysis in a New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sandrine Corvoisier & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation - how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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