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Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries

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Author Info
Ralph Süppel () (Merrill Lynch International, Neue Mainzer Str. 52, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract

This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output fluctuations than the euro area and other EU countries. Second, a set of different methodologies suggests that business cycles of accession countries have been less synchronised with the euro area than those of the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark. It is less clear whether accession countries are also less synchronised than the euro area peripherals (Greece, Portugal and Ireland). Moreover, synchrony differed across countries. Some accession economies, particularly Hungary, Poland and Slovenia, showed a close alignment with euro area fluctuations. Others, in particular the Czech Republic and Slovakia, revealed remarkable asymmetries, which are a reminder that sizeable idiosyncratic shocks remain a risk. JEL Classification: E32; E52; F31.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 267.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030267

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate; optimal currency area; central and eastern Europe; Kalman filter; structural VAR.;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Fielding, David & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 250-268, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernd Schnatz & Chiara Osbat & Rasmus Rueffer, 2003. "The rise of the Yen vis-a-vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?," Working Paper Series 224, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips curves - a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ignazio Angeloni & Gunter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alessandro Calza & Joao Sousa & Marta Manrique Simon, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philipp Hartmann & Angela Maddaloni & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 180-213.
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  11. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marcus H. Miller & Olli Castren & Roger Stiegert, 2003. "Growth expectations; capital flows and international risk sharing," Working Paper Series 237, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Annick Bruggeman & Marie Donnay, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 264, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Marek Jarocinski, 2006. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jean-Marc Figuet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp810, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Research series 200411-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Canela, Miguel A., 2008. "Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market," IESE Research Papers D/727, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán, 2005. "Characterizing macroeconomic shocks in the CEECs," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 227-234, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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