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Consumption; habit persistence; imperfect information and the lifetime budget constraint

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Author Info
Alpo Willman () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract

Based on the households' utility maximisation, a closed form approximation of the consumption function is derived and the deep parameters of the consumption function are estimated using aggregate euro area data. The novel element in our approach is the parameterisation of the information content regarding future income changes. In addition to the information regarding time series properties of the historical development of labour income, consumers have also period-specific information on future income realisations. Estimation results support the hypothesis that, although front-loaded, consumers have a lot of information on future income changes, but that also lagged consumption, through habit formation, plays an important role. JEL Classification: D12; E21.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 251.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030251

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Related research
Keywords: Consumption; wealth; life-cycle hypothesis.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/02, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Orazio P. Attanasio & Hamish Low, 2000. "Estimating Euler Equations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dolado, J. & Galbraith, J.W. & Banerjee, A., 1991. "Estimating Intertemporal Quadratic Adjustment Cost Models with Integrated Series," Economics Series Working Papers 99111, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  12. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ripatti, A., 1998. "Demand for Money in Inflation-Targeting Monetary Policy," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance e13, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
  14. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  19. Jeffrey C Fuhrer, 1998. "An Optimising Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation Help?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9812, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Nagatani, Keizo, 1972. "Life Cycle Saving: Theory and Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 344-53, June.
  21. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation and Catching Up With the Jones," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  23. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245. [Downloadable!]
  26. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mika Kuismanen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Information, habits, and consumption behavior - evidence from micro data," Working Paper Series 572, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alpo Willman, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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