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Public finances and long-term growth in Europe - evidence from a panel data analysis

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  • De Ávila, Diego Romero
  • Strauch, Rolf
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    Abstract

    In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European growth strategy. It considers an average economic growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming years and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses the question whether we can find empirical evidence for European countries that public finance reform affects trend growth. Focusing on time series patterns, we investigate whether there have been persistent shifts or trends in economic growth and fiscal variables over the last 40 years. In addition, we estimate a distributed lag model, which 1) indicates that government consumption and transfers negatively affect growth rates of GDP per capita over the business cycle, while public investment has a positive impact, and 2) provides robust evidence that distortionary taxation affects growth in the medium-term through its impact on the accumulation of private physical capital. JEL Classification: C22, C23, H11, O11

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0246.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030246

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    Keywords: Europe; long-term growth; public finance;

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
    2. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, May.
      • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, May.
    3. Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data Badi H. Baltagi Wiley, 1995," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October.
    4. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
    5. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Eller, Markus & Haiss, Peter & Steiner, Katharina, 2006. "Foreign direct investment in the financial sector and economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe: The crucial role of the efficiency channel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 300-319, December.
    2. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2010. "La calidad del gasto público y su influencia en el desarrollo económico: una validación empírica para los países de la OCDE 1970-2005," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 193(2), pages 9-48, June.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
    4. Christoph Schaltegger & Benno Torgler, 2006. "Growth effects of public expenditure on the state and local level: evidence from a sample of rich governments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1181-1192.
    5. Francisco de Castro Fernández & José Manuel González Mínguez, 2008. "The composition of public finances and long-term growth: a macroeconomic approach," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0809, Banco de Espa�a.
    6. Diego Enrique Pinilla Rodríguez & Juan de Dios Jiménez Aguilera & Roberto Montero Granados, 2013. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico. Un estudio empírico para América Latina," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
    7. Pryor, Frederic L., 2005. "Market economic systems," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 25-46, March.

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