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Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?

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Author Info
Carsten Detken () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Vitor Gaspar () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy directed at maintaining price stability. It is shown that the behaviour of the exchange rate depends on the structure of the economy and on the nature of the relevant shocks. In the case of very open economies the exchange rate will look quasi-fixed in response to shocks stemming from the international capital markets. It is also shown that the joined endogeneity of the interest rate and the exchange rate has important implications for the empirical testing of uncovered interest rate parity. JEL Classification: E58; E63; F41.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 241.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030241

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Related research
Keywords: Price stability; small open economy; flexible exchange rates; managed floating; uncovered interest rate parity.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-23, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina," Working Papers 74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Alex Mourmouras, 2002. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant," IMF Working Papers 02/11, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-29, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1992. "Does the Forward Premium/Discount Help to Predict the Future Change in the Exchange Rate?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-40, May.
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  19. Kugler, Peter, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, open interest rate parity and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 209-214, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2001. "Capital markets and the exchange rate with special reference to the dollarization debate in Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 312-338.
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  26. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Hélène Poirson, . "How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2007. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Working Papers 07.10, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Akram Esanov & Christian Merkl & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "A Preliminary Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules for Russia," Kiel Working Papers 1201, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 11056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates - do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcelo Sánchez, 2006. "How does information affect the comovement between interest rates and exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 608, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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