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The natural real rate of interest in the euro area

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  • Giammarioli, Nicola
  • Valla, Natacha

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking inot account the variations of the natural real interest rate (rt*) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of rt* that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present the implied 'real rate rate gap' as a possible additional indicator to assess the stance of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E4, E5

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0233.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030233

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Related research

Keywords: euro area; monetary policy; Natural rate of interest;

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References

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  1. Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 1999. "Intertemporal Substitution and the Liquidity Effect in a Sticky Price Model," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9919, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
  4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  5. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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