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The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting fnflation risks

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Author Info
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics, 611 Tappan Street, Ann Arbor , MI 48109-1220, United States.)
Simone Manganelli () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we demonstrate the usefulness of risk forecasts in understanding the Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy in 1984, 1988, and 1994. Second, we forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. We find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find that only for Japan there is evidence of deflation risks that are unusually high by historical standards. JEL Classification: E31; E37; E52; E58; C22.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 226.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030226

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; deflation; risk; forecast; monetary policy.;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  3. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hanoch, G & Levy, Haim, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(107), pages 335-46, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
  11. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vitor Gaspar, 2003. "The conduct of monetary policy under uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 249-264. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model - an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 389, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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