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Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate

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  • Schnatz, Bernd
  • Vijselaar, Focco
  • Osbat, Chiara

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of productivity developments in the United States and the euro area on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The paper presents a new measure of relative average labour productivity (ALP), which does not suffer from the biases implicit in readily available relative ALP data. Importantly, the patterns of these series differ widely. Employing the Johansen cointegration framework, four Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate models are estimated using four different productivity proxies. Our results indicate that the extent to which productivity can explain the euro depreciation varies with the productivity proxy used: readily available measures explain most, our new, preferred measure least. If foreign exchange traders used the former to assess productivity developments, this might thus have contributed to the weakness of the euro in 2000/2001. In all models, however, productivity can explain only a fraction of the actual euro depreciation experienced in 1999/2000. JEL Classification: F31, C32, O47

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0225.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030225

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Related research

Keywords: average labour productivity; BEER; cointegration; euro; real exchange rate; US dollar;

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References

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  1. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  3. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  4. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-94, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2009. "Exchange-Rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," Kiel Working Papers 1488, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
  4. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
  5. Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2011. "World Technology Shocks and the Real Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," TSE Working Papers 11-261, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  6. F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective," THEMA Working Papers 99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting RBC Style," CEPR Discussion Papers 5029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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