The rise of the Yen vis-a-vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

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The rise of the Yen vis-a-vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

Author Info

Bernd Schnatz () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Chiara Osbat () (European University Institute - Economics Department (ECO), Villa San Paolo, Via della Piazzuola 43, 50133 Florence, Italy.)
Rasmus Rueffer () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper examines the long-run determinants of the euro-yen exchange rate. Using cointegration analysis, we find a consistent and significant relationship between the real exchange rate and relative productivity, the net foreign asset position, relative government spending and terms of trade shocks, as well as a fairly rapid mean reversion of the exchange rate to its equilibrium. The "equilibrium" rate tracks the trends in the actual exchange rate quite well, accounting for a large part of the yen appreciation from the mid-1970s to 2001. Our findings suggest that the euro appreciation against the yen in 2001 represented an equilibrium correction of its previous depreciation. Moreover, the width of the error bands highlights the difficulties arising when attempting to determine the precise equilibrium value of a currency. JEL Classification: F31; C32.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 224.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030224

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References listed on IDEAS
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Other versions:
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations - Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Kerstin Gerling & Hans Peter Grüner & Alexandra Kiel & Elisabeth Schulte, 2003. "Information acquisition and decision making in committees: A survey," Working Paper Series 256, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gerling, Kerstin & Gruner, Hans Peter & Kiel, Alexandra & Schulte, Elisabeth, 2005. "Information acquisition and decision making in committees: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 563-597, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the Euro area; when countries are heterogeneous," Working Paper Series 260, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over the Euro Area, when Countries are Heterogeneous," Macroeconomics 0309018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the Euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Marco Catenaro & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2003. "Implicit tax co-ordination under repeated policy interactions," Working Paper Series 259, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Ralph Süppel, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: What role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

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