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The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment

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Author Info
Roberto A. De Santis () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Michele Ca'Zorzi () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The enlargement of the European monetary union to include the accession countries (ACs) will not lead to higher average inflation in the enlarged euro area, but only to inflation redistribution across countries if continuity of the monetary policy framework is preserved. In the short term, unanticipated shocks to the real exchange rate may instead affect aggregate inflation if member countries' economic structure differs. The theoretical model is then applied to ten ACs. The numerical results indicate that the implications for the euro area are significant only if we assume a strong real exchange rate appreciation and if ACs are weighted in terms of purchasing power parity standards. In the event of real exchange rate or country-specific supply shocks in ACs, the consequences would be limited for both the current and the enlarged euro area, but sizeable for ACs themselves. JEL Classification: E52; E58; F33; F40.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 216.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030216

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Related research
Keywords: Accession countries; Balassa-Samuelson effect; European monetary union; exchange rate regimes; monetary policy.;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Otmar Issing, 2001. "The Euro Area and the Single Monetary Policy," Working Papers 44, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wojciech S. Maliszewski, 2000. "Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 749-789, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-99, August.
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  8. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lane, Philip R, 2000. " Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 102(4), pages 585-604, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Grafe, Clemens & Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 1773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Issing, Otmar, 2001. "The Euro Area and the Single Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 277-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Neyapti, Bilin, 2001. "Central bank independence and economic performance in eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 381-399, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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