Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
Abstract
This paper examines the issue of the impact of aggregation in the empirical analysis of euro area labour markets. A Phillips Curve describing the adjustment of unit labour costs is estimated at the national and aggregate level for the 5 largest euro area countries. Potential sources of aggregation bias are investigated - such as differences in parameter coefficients and a lack of correlation in the independent variables across countries - as well as the potentially offsetting statistical averaging effect. Finally the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches is evaluated. The results point to some limited advantages of analysing wage developments at the national rather than at the area-wide level. The paper concludes that if major advantages in undertaking national analysis do exist, they are likely to arise from the ability to develop country-specific structures for the Phillips Curves and not from aggregation biases that emerge when a common structure is used. JEL Classification: C52; C53; E24; J30.Download Info
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 213.Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030213
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Related research
Keywords: Euro area; Phillips curve; wage growth.;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
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"Constructing Historical Euro Area Data,"
CAMA Working Papers
2007-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Eilev S. Jansen, 2004.
"Modelling inflation in the Euro Area,"
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2004/10, Norges Bank.
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- Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
- Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004.
"Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution,"
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346, European Central Bank.
- Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
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- Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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"Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?,"
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"Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States,"
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- Yesim Kustepeli, 2005. "A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 581-591.
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