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Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves

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  • Fabiani, Silvia
  • Morgan, Julian

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of the impact of aggregation in the empirical analysis of euro area labour markets. A Phillips Curve describing the adjustment of unit labour costs is estimated at the national and aggregate level for the 5 largest euro area countries. Potential sources of aggregation bias are investigated ­ such as differences in parameter coefficients and a lack of correlation in the independent variables across countries ­ as well as the potentially offsetting statistical averaging effect. Finally the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches is evaluated. The results point to some limited advantages of analysing wage developments at the national rather than at the area-wide level. The paper concludes that if major advantages in undertaking national analysis do exist, they are likely to arise from the ability to develop country-specific structures for the Phillips Curves and not from aggregation biases that emerge when a common structure is used. JEL Classification: C52, C53, E24, J30

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0213.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030213

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  1. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
  2. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  3. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
  4. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Locarno & Gian Paolo Oneto & Paolo Sestito, 1997. "NAIRU: Incomes Policy and Inflation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 187, OECD Publishing.
  5. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
  6. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2001. "Money demand in the euro area: do national differences matter?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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Cited by:
  1. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
  2. Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "Modelling inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0322, European Central Bank.
  3. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, EconWPA.
  4. De Grauwe, Paul & Senegas, Marc-Alexandre, 2006. "Monetary policy design and transmission asymmetry in EMU: Does uncertainty matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 787-808, December.
  5. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
  6. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
  7. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, 05.
  8. Yesim Kustepeli, 2005. "A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 581-591.
  9. Marc-Alexandre Senegas & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Transmission parameter uncertainty and heterogeneity in EMU: which federal monetary policy for the ECB?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 86, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Jaan Masso & Karsten Staehr, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics And Nominal Adjustment In The Baltic States," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 35, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  11. Nicolien Schermer, 2005. "The Synchronisation of European Labour Markets: An Analysis Using Aggregate Philips Curves," DNB Working Papers 076, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  13. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  14. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS

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