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Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area

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  • Gerdesmeier, Dieter
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

This paper contains a set of estimates of reaction functions for the euro area based on a monthly data set starting in 1985. The main aim is to assess the performance of Taylor rules and to evaluate whether alternative specifications based, inter alia, on the inclusionc of additional variables not contained in the original specification proposed by Taylor or the use of different measures of the output gap and the inflation term, can better track the interest rate setting in the euro area. An interesting result is that monetary developments (in the form of a money growth gap indicator derived as the deviation of M# growth from its estimated reference value) enter significantly as an additional variable in a Taylor-like policy rule specification for the euro area. JEL Classification: E58, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0206.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030206

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Keywords: euro area; monetary policy; reaction functions; Taylor rules;

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  1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  5. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  10. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
  11. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  12. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  15. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  18. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
  20. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
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