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Myopic loss aversion; disappointment aversion; and the equity premium puzzle

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Author Info
Livio Stracca () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
David Fielding () (University of Leicester - Department of Economics, New Building 304, Leicester LE1 7RH, United Kingdom.)

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Abstract

This paper takes a close look at the "behavioural finance" explanations of the equity premium puzzle, namely myopic loss aversion (Benartzi and Thaler, 1995) and disappointment aversion (Ang, Bekaert and Liu, 2000). The paper proposes a simple specification of loss and disappointment aversion and brings these theories to the data. The main conclusion of the paper is that a highly short-sighted investment horizon is required for the historical equity premium to be explained by loss aversion, while reasonable values for disappointment aversion are found also for long investment horizons. So, stocks may lose only in the short term, but may disappoint also in the long term. JEL Classification: G11; G12.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 203.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030203

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Related research
Keywords: Myopic loss aversion; disappointment aversion; equity premium puzzle; investment horizon; reference dependence.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nicholas Barberis, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Otrok, C. & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, C., 1998. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle?," Working Papers 98-04, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Jia, Jianmin & Dyer, James S & Butler, John C, 2001. " Generalized Disappointment Models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 59-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  7. Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Economics Working Papers E00-279, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S251-78, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajinish Mehra, . "Junior Can't Borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 21-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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  12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. " Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Siegel, Jeremy J & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, . "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 494, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  24. Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1281-1292, September.
  25. Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1034, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kerstin Gerling & Hans Peter Grüner & Alexandra Kiel & Elisabeth Schulte, 2003. "Information acquisition and decision making in committees: A survey," Working Paper Series 256, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the Euro area; when countries are heterogeneous," Working Paper Series 260, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the Euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thorsten V. Köppl, 2004. "Risk sharing through financial markets with endogenous enforcement of trades," Working Paper Series 319, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marco Catenaro & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2003. "Implicit tax co-ordination under repeated policy interactions," Working Paper Series 259, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "A mark-up model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 306, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2004. "Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Working Paper Series 347, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ralph Süppel, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gemmill, Gordon T & Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2005. "Performance Measurement with Loss Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 5173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: What role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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