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Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector

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  • Calza, Alessandro
  • Manrique, Marta
  • Sousa, João

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the behaviour of euro area aggregate loans to the private sector. Using a sample covering the last twenty years, a cointegrating vector linking the real stock of loans to a small set of domestic macroeconomic variables is found. Besides real GDP and prices, this set includes a new measure of the cost of loans obtained as a weighted average of bank lending rates. The results are overall encouraging, though the recursive estimates of the long-run parameters suggest that in 2000 some disturbances, probably of a temporary nature, affected the system. The study then addresses the issue of the leading indicator properties of loans. It finds that the deviations of the real stock of loans from the equilibrium level implied by the model seem to contain information on future changes in inflation, though not on its level. JEL Classification: C32, C51

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0202.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030202

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Keywords: cointegration; credit; euro area; loans;

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References

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  6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  7. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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  18. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1985. "Sterling Bank Lending to UK Industrial and Commercial Companies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 91-118, May.
  19. de Bandt, Olivier & Jacquinot, Pascal, 1992. "The financing of corporate firms in France : An econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 253-269, July.
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