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Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector

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Author Info
Alessandro Calza () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Joao Sousa () (European Central Bank, Postfach 160319, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Marta Manrique Simon () (Bank of Spain - Servicio de Estudios, 28027 Madrid, Spain.)

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Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the behaviour of euro area aggregate loans to the private sector. Using a sample covering the last twenty years, a cointegrating vector linking the real stock of loans to a small set of domestic macroeconomic variables is found. Besides real GDP and prices, this set includes a new measure of the cost of loans obtained as a weighted average of bank lending rates. The results are overall encouraging, though the recursive estimates of the long-run parameters suggest that in 2000 some disturbances, probably of a temporary nature, affected the system. The study then addresses the issue of the leading indicator properties of loans. It finds that the deviations of the real stock of loans from the equilibrium level implied by the model seem to contain information on future changes in inflation, though not on its level. JEL Classification: C32; C51.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 202.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030202

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Related research
Keywords: Credit; loans; euro area; cointegration.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  7. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic activity and the short-term credit markets: an analysis of prices and quantities," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
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  10. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1985. "Sterling Bank Lending to UK Industrial and Commercial Companies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 91-118, May.
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  15. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Claus Brand & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 03, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
    Other versions:
  18. Gabe de Bondt, 2002. "Euro area corporate debt securities market: first empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 164, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ignazio Angeloni & Benoit Mojon & Anil K. Kashyap & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary transmission in the Euro Area: where do we stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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  23. Kakes, Jan, 2000. "Identifying the Mechanism: Is There a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission in the Netherlands?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 63-67, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kerstin Gerling & Hans Peter Grüner & Alexandra Kiel & Elisabeth Schulte, 2003. "Information acquisition and decision making in committees: A survey," Working Paper Series 256, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gabe de Bondt & Benoit Mojon & Natacha Valla, 2005. "Term structure and the sluggishness of retail bank interest rates in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 518, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oliver Hülsewig & Eric Mayer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Transmission in Germany: An Assessment Based on Matching Impulse Responses," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Papers No.14, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2007. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," Working Papers 58, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the Euro area; when countries are heterogeneous," Working Paper Series 260, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2009. "Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch?," MPRA Paper 16740, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the Euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Balázs Égert & Peter Backé & Tina Zumer, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe - new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 687, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thorsten V. Köppl, 2004. "Risk sharing through financial markets with endogenous enforcement of trades," Working Paper Series 319, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Marco Catenaro & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2003. "Implicit tax co-ordination under repeated policy interactions," Working Paper Series 259, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "A mark-up model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 306, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2004. "Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Working Paper Series 347, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. José Manuel Marqués & Fernando Nieto & Ana del Río, 2005. "Una aproximación a los determinantes de la financiación de las sociedades no financieras en España," Banco de España Working Papers 0535, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  17. Fernando Nieto, 2007. "The determinants of household credit in Spain," Banco de España Working Papers 0716, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ralph Süppel, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 267, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks - are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: What role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  22. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Olga Arratibel & Reiner Martin & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU member states - which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

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