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Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?

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  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Fratzscher, Marcel

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the degree and nature of interdependence between the United States and the euro area have changed with the advent of EMU. Using real-time data, it addresses this issue from the perspective of financial markets by analysing the effects of monetary policy announcements and macroeconomic news on daily interest rates in the United States and the euro area. The paper finds that the interdependence of money markets has steadily increased over time, with the spillover effects from the United States to the euro area being somewhat stronger than in the opposite direction. Moreover, for the early stages of EMU, we find evidence that the markets were going through a learning process about the ECB monetary policy. Towards the end of our sample period, the importance attached to euro area consumer prices and M3 has reached levels that are remarkably similar to the role of German consumer prices and M3 for German interest rates prior to EMU. JEL Classification: E43, E52, F42

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0200.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020200

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Keywords: announcements; interdependence; money markets; news; real-time;

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  1. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp & Holly Liu & Jeffrey Williams, 2003. "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Working Papers 14, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
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  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "International linkages and macroeconomic news effects on interest rate volatility -- Australia and the US," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-113, March.
  6. Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 0069, European Central Bank.
  7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02.
  8. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  10. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2001. "Macroeconomic news and the euro/dollar exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 105, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36.
  13. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Kopecky, Kenneth J, 1995. "Domestic macroeconomic news and foreign interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 763-783, December.
  14. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
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