Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach

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Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach

Author Info

Alpo Willman () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a three equation supply-side model based on aggregation across sectors with sector specific mark-ups and the technology parameters of the production function. The model has been applied to euro area data from the 1970s assuming that the underlying production function is either CES or Cobb-Douglas. Estimation results support the Cobb-Douglas case and the estimated supply-side model accounts satisfactorily for the stylised features of the data, i.e. the hump shape in the labour income share coupled with the relatively stable capital-to-labour income ratio and a noticeable change in profit margins and sectoral production shares. We also produce estimates of potential output and the output gap conditional on estimated production functions and examine the sensitivity of output gap estimates with respect to the alternative parameterisation of the production function. JEL Classification: E23; E25.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 153.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020153

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References listed on IDEAS
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Zvi Griliches & Jacques Mairesse, 1995. "Production Functions: The Search for Identification," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1719, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
Other versions:
- Zvi Griliches & Jacques Mairesse, 1995. "Production Functions: The Search for Identification," NBER Working Papers 5067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. " A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Production, supply and factor shares: an application to estimating German long-run supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 191-215, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A small estimated Euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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- Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/08, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Juergen Janger & Johann Scharler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2006. "The Potential Growth prospects of the Austrian Economy - Methods and Determinants," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-52, May 2006. [Downloadable!]
Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname \u2013 A new quarterly model for Belgium," Research series 200505-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the US: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_030, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US - a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 367, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers 2004/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]

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