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Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

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Author Info
Alberto Cabrero () (Banco de Espana, Alcala 50,E-28014 Madrid, Spain.)
Gonzalo Camba-Mendez () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Astrid Hirsch () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Fernando Nieto () (Banco de Espana, Alcala 50,E-28014 Madrid, Spain.)
Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. JEL Classification: C22; C51; C53; C59.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 142.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020142

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Related research
Keywords: Daily forecast; liquidity management; time series models; seasonality; cubic splines.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Marius Ooms & Björn de Groot & Siem Jan Koopman, 1999. "Time-Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 312, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-70, July.
  4. Ulrich Bindseil & Franz Seitz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - the first 18 months," Working Paper Series 44, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-68, July.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Björn Fischer & Petra Köhler & Franz Seitz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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