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Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

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  • Cabrero, Alberto
  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo
  • Hirsch, Astrid
  • Nieto, Fernando
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    Abstract

    The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C53, C59

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0142.

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    Date of creation: May 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020142

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    Keywords: Daily Forecast; liquidity management; seasonality; time series models;

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    References

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    1. Marius Ooms & Bj�rn de Groot & Siem Jan Koopman, 1999. "Time-Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 312, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
    4. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-68, July.
    5. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    7. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-70, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
    2. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "Developing Partnership between National Bank of Romania and Universities," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(3), pages 565-574, July.
    3. Erica Rizziato, 2010. "La Formazione-sviluppo per la creazione di moderne comunità lavorative [Developmnt-training to create working communities]," CERIS Working Paper 201003, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).
    4. Fischer, Björn & Köhler, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 0330, European Central Bank.
    5. Marek Hlavacek & Michael Konak & Josef Cada, 2005. "The Application of Structured Feedforward Neural Networks to the Modelling of Daily Series of Currency in Circulation," Working Papers 2005/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    7. Bindseil, Ulrich & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Weller, Benedict, 2006. "Excess reserves and the implementation of monetary policy of the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 491-510, July.
    8. Diego Elías & Matías Vicens, 2012. "Bills and Coins Daily Demand Forecast," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 23-39, September.
    9. Ioana Florentina SAVU, 2011. "National Bank of Romania Management in Time of Financial Crisis," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(5), pages 1013-1021, December.

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