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Monetary policy and fears of financial instability

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  • Brousseau, Vincent
  • Detken, Carsten

Abstract

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the stability of inflation to the smoothness of the interest rate path. A policy focusing only on a fixed-horizon inflation forecast neglects the potential effects of this belief on the variance of inflation. The nature of the conflict case is interpreted as evidence for the occasional relevance as well as the general tenuousness of the conflict case. The implementation of our example has led us, furthermore, to illustrate the lack of general applicability of the Bellman principle in dynamic programming for forward-looking models. Our result holds with respect to a more general (Nash-type) concept of optimality JEL Classification: C61, C62, E52, E58

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0089.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010089

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  1. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/13, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  2. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
  3. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 4692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Central banks, asset bubbles, and financial stability," Working Paper Series WP-98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Goodfriend, M. & King, R.G., 1988. "Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, And Central Banking," RCER Working Papers 121, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, . "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
  10. Christopher Kent & Guy Debelle, 1999. "Trends in the Australian Banking System: Implications for Financial System Stability and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Cited by:
  1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Consequences?," Discussion Paper 2002-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle: five views," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 18, 8.
  3. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU, 2011. "Macro-Financial Risks and Central Banks: What Changes Has the Crisis Triggered?," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 135-142.
  4. Jaromir Baxa & Roman Horvath & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2011/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Vítor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 0241, European Central Bank.
  6. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
  7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
  8. Mario Sarcinelli, 2003. "Crisi economiche e mercati finanziari:  di aiuto un nuovo ordine finanziario?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(224), pages 387-422.
  9. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2014. "The policy-mix in the Euro Area: The Role of Financial Stability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 705-717.
  10. Sofía Bauducco & Aleš Bulir & Martin Èihák, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 545-565, December.
  11. Martin Cihák & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.

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