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Determinants of the Euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach

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Author Info
Francisco Maeso Fernandez () (Universidad de Murcia - Department of Applied Economics, 3010 Murcia, Spain.)
Bernd Schnatz () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Chiara Osbat () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium-term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). Four different model specifications are retained, due to the difficulties encountered in specifying an encompassing model. Results indicate that differentials in real interest rates and productivity, and (in some specifications) the relative fiscal stance and the real price of oil, have a significant influence on the euro effective exchange rate. Assessing the existence and the extent of the over- or undervaluation of the exchange rate is not straightforward, since these different specifications often lead to contrasting findings. However, all four models point unambiguously to the undervaluation of the euro in 2000, although the extent of this undervaluation largely depends on the specification chosen. JEL Classification: F31; F32.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 085.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010085

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Related research
Keywords: euro; equilibrium exchange rates; cointegration analysis; Gonzalo-Granger decomposition; fundamentals; BEER; PEER.;

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  1. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate : synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to calculate equilibrium exchange rates : an overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jérôme Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
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  7. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A Real Differential View of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  8. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
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  10. Reint Gropp & Kristina Kostial, 2000. "The disappearing tax base: is foreign direct investment eroding corporate income taxes?," Working Paper Series 31, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Angel J. Ubide & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Susana Garcia Cervero, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates - Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Hansen, J. & Roeger, W., 2000. "Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  22. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
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  24. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
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