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Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

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Author Info
Elena Angelini () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Jerome Henry () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Ricardo Mestre () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

Diffusion indexes based on dynamic factors have recently been advocated by Stock and Watson (1998), and further used to perform forecasting tests by the same authors on US data. This technique is explored for the euro area using a multi-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the aggregate euro area level. First, a description of f. Conclusions reached are that nominal phenomena in the original variables might be well captured actors extracted from different data sets is performed using a number of different approaches in-sample using the factor approach. Out-of-sample tests have more ambiguous interpretation, as factors seem to be good leading indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as unemployment or money growth do not outperform them. JEL Classification: C53; E31; E37.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 061.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010061

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Keywords: forecast; euro area; dynamic factors; inflation.;

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  1. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Elena Angelini & Jerome Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties," Working Paper Series 060, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabriel Moser & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian Inflation," Working Papers 91, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 200815, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Claudio Morana, 2004. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Working Paper Series 305, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anna Maria Agresti & Benoit Mojon, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the Euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gian Maria Tomat, 2002. "Durable goods; price indexes and quality change: an application to automobile prices in Italy, 1988-1998," Working Paper Series 118, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Vulpes, Giuseppe & Brasili, Andrea, 2006. "Banking integration and co-movements in EU banks’ fragility," MPRA Paper 1964, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrea Brasili & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Co-movements in EU banks’ fragility: a dynamic factor model approach," Finance 0411011, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005.
  10. A.H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," ECARES Working Papers 2008_012, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Pooling-based data interpolation and backdating," CEPR Discussion Papers 5295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. K. Hubrich, 2001. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does contemponaneous aggregration improve the forecasting performance," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 661, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Boris Hofmann, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 867, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Álvaro Aguirre R. & Luis Felipe Céspedes C., 2004. "Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 274, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Davor Kunovac, 2007. "Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 371-393. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation in the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 102, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Documents de Travail 101, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Vojtech Benda & Lubos Ruzicka, 2007. "Short-term Forecasting Methods Based on the LEI Approach: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2007/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  22. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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