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Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?

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  • Peersman, Gert
  • Smets, Frank

Abstract

This paper investigates whether monetary policy impulses have asymmetric effects on output growth in seven countries of the euro area (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands). First, it is shown that these seven countries share the same business cycle. Next, strong evidence is presented that area-wide monetary policy impulses, measured as the contribution of monetary policy shocks to the short-term interest rate in a simple VAR for the euro area economy, have significantly larger effects on output growth in recessions than in booms. These differences are most pronounced in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium, while they are much smaller in Austria and the Netherlands JEL Classification: E4, E5

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0052.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010052

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Keywords: monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2002. "The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0165, European Central Bank.
  2. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1999. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Carleton Economic Papers 99-17, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  6. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
  7. Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Kakes, Jan, 1998. "Monetary transmission and business cycle asymmetry," Research Report 98C36, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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