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Firm size and monetary policy transmission: evidence from German business survey data

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  • Ehrmann, Michael

Abstract

Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions of firms of several size classes are analysed, with the finding of considerable asymmetry. As predicted by theory, small firms are affected more strongly than large firms. To test whether these effects are reinforced when the economy is in a business cycle downturn, the paper employs a new estimation strategy: impulse response analysis conditional on Markov-switching regimes. The findings are supportive of the theoretical hypotheses: in a business cycle downturn, the distributional effects of monetary policy transmission are indeed reinforced. JEL Classification: E52, E44, C32

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0021.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20000021

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Keywords: balance sheet channel; firm size; Markov switching; Monetary policy transmission;

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  1. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Audretsch, David B & Elston, Julie Ann, 1994. "Does Firm Size Matter? Evidence on the Impacts of Liquidity Constraints on Firm Investment Behaviour in Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  4. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2003. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00112525, HAL.
  5. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
  7. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06.
  8. Audretsch, David B. & Elston, Julie Ann, 2000. "Does firm size matter? Evidence on the impact of liquidity constraint on firm investment behavior in Germany," HWWA Discussion Papers 113, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-97.
  10. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Microeconometric Evidence for a German Credit Channel," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20002, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  11. Buckle, Robert A & Meads, Chris S, 1991. "How Do Firms React to Surprising Changes to Demand? A Vector Autoregressive Analysis Using Business Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 451-66, November.
  12. repec:oxf:wpaper:060 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
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