Trade consistency in the context of the Eurosystem projection exercises – an overview
AbstractThe Eurosystem macroeconomic projection exercises are part of the input prepared for the Governing Council’s decision-making meetings. Under the economic analysis pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, they are a key element in the assessment of economic prospects and of the short to medium-term risks to price stability. The projection exercises are conducted on the basis of a number of “technical” assumptions. In particular, assumptions are made about future developments in world trade, foreign prices and nominal exchange rates. The purpose of the trade consistency exercise (TCE) is to ensure that individual country forecasts are consistent with each other regarding the assumptions made about the international environment. Trade consistency is ensured in two directions: first, the cross-trade consistency part of the TCE involves examining the consistency of the trade projections at any given point in time; and second, the ex ante/ex post trade consistency part involves comparing the projections for a given variable across different projection rounds. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the data and techniques underlying the trade consistency exercises in the context of the projection exercises of the Eurosystem and the ECB. JEL Classification: C23, D92, E22, E52, G31, G32
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 108.
Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Financing, Investment, and Capacity
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-05-22 (European Economics)
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