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Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa

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  • Uwe Böwer
  • André Geis
  • Adalbert Winkler

Abstract

Commodity prices play an important role in economic developments in most of the 24 Western and Central African (WCA) countries covered in this paper. It is confirmed that in the light of rising commodity prices between 1999 and 2005, net oil exporters recorded strong growth rates while net oil-importing countries – albeit benefiting from increases in their major non-oil commodity export prices – displayed somewhat lower growth. For most WCA economies, inflation rates appear less affected by commodity price changes and more determined by exchange rate regimes as well as monetary and fiscal policies. While passthrough effects from international to domestic energy prices were significant, notably in oilimporting countries, second-round effects on overall prices seem limited. Governments of oil-rich countries reacted prudently to windfall revenues, partly running sizable fiscal surpluses. A favourable supply response to rising spending as well as sterilisation efforts and increasing money demand also helped to dampen inflationary pressures. However, substantial excess reserves of commercial banks reflect challenges in financial sector developments and the effectiveness of monetary policy in many WCA countries. Given currently widelyused fixed exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy will continue to carry the main burden of macroeconomic adjustment and of sustaining non-inflationary growth, which remains the key policy challenge facing WCA authorities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 60.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20070060

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Cited by:
  1. Alisson Curátola de Melo, 2013. "Brazil’s Commodity Price Index," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 217-227 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Klaus Masuch & Ramon Gómez-Salvador & Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Rolf Strauch & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Jan De Mulder & Harald Stahl & Yvonne McCarthy & Daphne Nicolitsas & Aitor L, 2008. "Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries - developments and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 87, European Central Bank.
  3. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva
    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," Department of Economics, Working Papers 072, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Implications of Oil Inflows for Savings and Reserve Management in the Cemac," IMF Working Papers 07/243, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Sengupta, Jonaki & Nag, Ranjanendra Narayan & Goswami, Bhaskar, 2013. "Terms of trade, capital accumulation and the macro-economy in a developing country: a theoretical analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(3), December.

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