Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy
AbstractThis paper provides an assessment of Russia’s long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country’s currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia’s fast economic expansion in recent years has benefited from a number of singular factors such as the unprecedented rise in oil prices, the paper presents new evidence on Russia’s oil price dependency using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The findings indicate that the positive impact of rising oil prices on Russia’s GDP growth has increased in recent years, but tends to be buffered by an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate which is stimulating imports. Additionally, there is empirical confirmation that growth in the service sector – a symptom usually associated with the Dutch disease phenomenon – is mainly a result of the transition process. Finally, the paper provides an overview of the relevant factors that are likely to affect Russia’s growth performance in the future. JEL Classification: O43, O 47, O51, O11, O14.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 58.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O43 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2007-04-14 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2007-04-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-04-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2007-04-14 (Transition Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- H. Lehmann & M. G. Silvagni, 2013.
"Is There Convergence of Russia’s Regions? Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995 – 2010,"
wp901, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Maria Giulia Silvagni, 2013. "Is There Convergence of Russia's Regions?: Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995–2010," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1083, OECD Publishing.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Silvagni, Maria Giulia, 2013. "Is There Convergence of Russia's Regions? Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995–2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7603, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
- Klaus Masuch & Ramon Gómez-Salvador & Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Rolf Strauch & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Jan De Mulder & Harald Stahl & Yvonne McCarthy & Daphne Nicolitsas & Aitor L, 2008. "Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries - developments and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 87, European Central Bank.
- Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US-Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, 02.
- Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Russia's Recent Economic and Reform Performance and Remaining Reform Challenges," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 207-222.
- Daniel Treisman, 2010. "Oil and Democracy in Russia," NBER Working Papers 15667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
- H. Lehmann & A. Muravyev, 2010. "Labor market institutions and labor market performance: what can we learn from transition countries?," Working Papers 714, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.