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Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy

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Author Info

  • Roland Beck
  • Annette Kamps
  • Elitza Mileva

Abstract

This paper provides an assessment of Russia’s long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country’s currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia’s fast economic expansion in recent years has benefited from a number of singular factors such as the unprecedented rise in oil prices, the paper presents new evidence on Russia’s oil price dependency using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The findings indicate that the positive impact of rising oil prices on Russia’s GDP growth has increased in recent years, but tends to be buffered by an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate which is stimulating imports. Additionally, there is empirical confirmation that growth in the service sector – a symptom usually associated with the Dutch disease phenomenon – is mainly a result of the transition process. Finally, the paper provides an overview of the relevant factors that are likely to affect Russia’s growth performance in the future. JEL Classification: O43, O 47, O51, O11, O14.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 58.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20070058

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Keywords: Russia; economic growth.;

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Cited by:
  1. H. Lehmann & M. G. Silvagni, 2013. "Is There Convergence of Russia’s Regions? Exploring the Empirical Evidence: 1995 – 2010," Working Papers wp901, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
  4. Klaus Masuch & Ramon Gómez-Salvador & Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Rolf Strauch & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Jan De Mulder & Harald Stahl & Yvonne McCarthy & Daphne Nicolitsas & Aitor L, 2008. "Labour supply and employment in the euro area countries - developments and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 87, European Central Bank.
  5. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US-Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, 02.
  6. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Russia's Recent Economic and Reform Performance and Remaining Reform Challenges," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 207-222.
  7. Daniel Treisman, 2010. "Oil and Democracy in Russia," NBER Working Papers 15667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
  9. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
  10. H. Lehmann & A. Muravyev, 2010. "Labor market institutions and labor market performance: what can we learn from transition countries?," Working Papers 714, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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