An introduction to the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters
AbstractThis paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a quarterly survey of euro area key macroeconomic variables conducted by the European Central Bank since 1999. Its purpose is to provide the necessary information for anyone interested in analysing or reporting the survey results. First, its motivations, the panel composition and the structure of the questionnaire are thoroughly explained. The results of the first 18 survey rounds for the three variables covered ? HICP inflation, the real GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate ? for the different horizons are then analysed in detail, including the information content of the uncertainty surrounding those forecast on the basis of the reported probability distributions for each of the variables and horizons. Finally, a comparison to other similar surveys, both for the euro area and the US economy, is also provided.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 08.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
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- Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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