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An introduction to the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters

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  • Juan Angel Garcia
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    Abstract

    This paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a quarterly survey of euro area key macroeconomic variables conducted by the European Central Bank since 1999. Its purpose is to provide the necessary information for anyone interested in analysing or reporting the survey results. First, its motivations, the panel composition and the structure of the questionnaire are thoroughly explained. The results of the first 18 survey rounds for the three variables covered ? HICP inflation, the real GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate ? for the different horizons are then analysed in detail, including the information content of the uncertainty surrounding those forecast on the basis of the reported probability distributions for each of the variables and horizons. Finally, a comparison to other similar surveys, both for the euro area and the US economy, is also provided.

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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp8.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 08.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20030008

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    Cited by:
    1. Bluhm, Marcel, 2011. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & A. Jung, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Mamatzakis, E. & Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A., 2014. "Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 567-575.
    4. Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets - Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Kiel Working Papers 1706, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
    7. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, 07.

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