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Strategic Asset Allocation with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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  • Thiago de Oliveira Souza

Abstract

We study the presence of long term investors using different return forecasting strategies and switching them based on their past performance generates the price trends observed in financial markets. In the empirical section, we assume that investors choose how to allocate their portfoilios among four major stock indices: Dow Jones, FTSE, Nikkei and Hand Seng. The exercise shows that a decrease in the proportion of fundamentalists is related to movements in prices that are subsequentialy reverted. In this paper, we bridge the literatures on intertemporal asset allocation and on heterogeneous beliefs. The interaction between two switching types of agents, e.g. fundamentalists and chartists, is responsible for endogenously generating the observed price trends.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/73599/1/2010-042-DEOLIVEIRASOUZA-strategic.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2010-042.

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Length: 43 p.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/73599

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Keywords: asset pricing; intertemporal asset allocation; heterogeneous beliefs; adaptative learning;

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  1. Noussair, C.N. & Lei , V. & Plott, C., 2001. "Non-speculative bubbles in experimental asset markets: Lack of common knowledge of rationality vs. actual irrationality," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-381105, Tilburg University.
  2. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  3. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Shanken, Jay, 1982. " The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-40, December.
  5. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  6. Shanken, Jay, 1992. " The Current State of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1569-74, September.
  7. George CHACKO & Luis M. VICEIRA, 1999. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp11, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
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