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Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels

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  • Olivia D'Aoust
  • Olivier Sterck
  • Philip Verwimp

Abstract

In 2009, hostilities were brought to an end in Burundi when the FNL rebel group laid downweapons. In exchange for peace, ex-rebels benefited from a disarmament, demobilizationand reintegration (DDR) program to finance their return to civilian life. A few years earlier,another rebel group (CNDD-FDD) had gone through the same program. In this paper, weassess the impact of this complex program from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint.First, we develop an agricultural model in order to predict the impact of demobilization cashtransfers on beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Then, we test the theoretical modelby using a household panel dataset collected in rural Burundi. We find that, in the shortrun, the cash payments received by ex-combatants had a positive direct impact on purchasesand investments of beneficiaries, as well as an indirect positive impact on non-beneficiaries.We also find that the direct and indirect impacts on purchases vanish in the long run. Theseresults suggest that reinsertion grants may favour the acceptation of ex-combatants in theirlocal communities in the short run, but are most likely not sufficient for peace to hold.More generally, it emphasizes the importance of considering spillovers in the evaluation ofdevelopment programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-22, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/143034
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck, 2019. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 333-368.
    2. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil conflict; Burundi; disarmament; demobilization and reintegration program; cash transfer; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania

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