Managing technology development for safety-critical systems
AbstractThis paper presents a model that determines the optimal budget allocation strategy for the development of new technologies for safety-critical systems over multiple decision periods. The case of the development of a hypersonic passenger airplane is used as an illustration. The model takes into account both the probability of technology development success as a function of the allocated budget, and the probability of operational performance of the final system. It assumes that the strategy is to consider (and possibly fund) several approaches to the development of each technology to maximize the probability of development success. The model thus decomposes the system's development process into multiple technology development modules (one for each technology needed), each involving a number of alternative projects. There is a tradeoff between development speed and operational reliability when the budget must be allocated among alternative technology projects with different probabilities of development success and operational reliability (e.g., an easily and quickly developed technology may have little robustness). The probabilities of development and operational failures are balanced by a risk analysis approach which allows the decision maker to optimize the budget allocation among different projects in the development program at the beginning of each budget period. The model indicates that by considering reliability in the R&D management process, the decision maker can make better decisions, optimizing the balance between development time, cost, and robustness of safety-critical systems.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/465.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 24 May 2002
Date of revision:
Technology development; system reliability; risk analysis; project management;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - General
- M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-11-04 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. Derman & G. J. Lieberman & S. M. Ross, 1976. "Optimal System Allocations with Penalty Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 399-403, December.
- Matthew J. Liberatore & George J. Titus, 1983. "The Practice of Management Science in R&D Project Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 962-974, August.
- Aoki, Reiko, 1991. "R&D Competition for Product Innovation: An Endless Race," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 252-56, May.
- Abdul Ali & Manohar U. Kalwani & Dan Kovenock, 1993. "Selecting Product Development Projects: Pioneering versus Incremental Innovation Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 255-274, March.
- James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
- Jensen, Elizabeth J, 1987. "Research Expenditures and the Discovery of New Drugs," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 83-95, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Jimenez).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.