West and Central African Iron Ore : A Lesson in the Contestability of the Iron Ore Market
AbstractThe paper briefly sets out factors behind Chinese demand for iron ore imports and the main features of Chinaâ€™s medium term resource consumption growth path. It then outlines the potential of major iron ore export countries to meet Chinaâ€™s medium term iron ore import demands. The focus of the paper is on the potential of iron ore supplies from west and central Africa to enter the export market over the short and medium terms. To assess this, three export capacity scenarios (low, medium and high risk) are constructed for 17 iron ore mines (over 27 production expansion phases) in west and central African. The results suggest the development of west and central African iron ore has the potential to create significant downward pressure on the price of iron ore exports over the short to medium term. The impact of the excess export capacity on iron ore price is estimated and it suggests that there would be significant knock-on effects for iron ore-centric economies such as Australia and Brazil.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series EABER Working Papers with number 23292.
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
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Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
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iron ore; China; Africa; demand for iron ore; iron ore price; Brazil; Australia;
Other versions of this item:
- Luke Hurst, 2012. "West and Central African Iron Ore : A Lesson in the Contestability of the Iron Ore Market," Trade Working Papers 23292, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Luke Hurst, 2012. "West and Central African Iron Ore: A Lesson in the Contestability of the Iron Ore Market," Crawford School Research Papers 1202, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-02 (All new papers)
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