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Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia

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Author Info
Kwanho Shin (Korea University)
Yunjong Wang () (Korea Institute of International Economic Policy)

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Abstract

As trade integration deepens in East Asia, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles among East Asian countries. Theoretically, however, increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to shift in either direction: while inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization would induce less synchronization, intra-industry trade could overturn this tendency. By using the data for twelve Asian economies, this paper finds that intra-industry trade is the major channel through which business cycles become synchronized among Asian economies, although increased trade itself does not necessarily lead to close business cycle coherence. this result has important implications for the prospects of a currency union in the region.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/intranet/documents/22/360/KIEP_Shin_03_2.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First Version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 360.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:360

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Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
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Related research
Keywords: business cycle synchronization intra-industry trade trade integration trade intensity

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

Cited by:
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  1. Harm Zebregs, 2004. "Intraregional Trade in Emerging Asia," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 04/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carlos Cortinhas, 2005. "Intra-Industry Trade and Business Cycles in ASEAN," NIPE Working Papers 7/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. B. Rana Pradumna, 2007. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0701, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
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