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Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

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  • Arslan Razmi

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Gonzalo Hernandez
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    Abstract

    Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world, can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades. We find in particular that, among our variables of interest, the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries is the one most robustly associated with output growth. The results have implications for continued post-crisis growth in Asian developing countries.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 23207.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:23207

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    Keywords: export-led growth; Asian developing countries; post-crisis; global crisis;

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