Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

FDI Inflows, Exports and Economic Growth in First and Second Generation ANIEs : Panel Data Causality Analyses

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yongkul Won

    (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

  • Frank S.T. Hsiao
  • Doo Yong Yang

Abstract

Using timeseries and panel data from 1981 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among the three first generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs) : Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the four second generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs) : Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, in addition to China. We first show the difference between the first and second generation ANIEs in terms of real GDP per capita, trade structure, and inward FDI, and find some individual characters of each economy. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual timeseries data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the seven economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the first generation ANIEs, the second generation ANIEs, and finally, all seven economies as a group. We then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that there are bidirectional causality relations among all three variables for the three first generation ANIEs, but only a weak bidirectional causality between real exports and GDP for the four second generation ANIEs. However, when all seven ANIEs are grouped for panel data analysis, we found FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, exports also causes GDP, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/21939
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 21939.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:21939

Contact details of provider:
Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: FDI; exports; GDP; Panel Data Causality Analysis; Granger Causality; VAR; Flying Geese Models; East Asia;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Petri, Peter A., 2006. "Is East Asia becoming more interdependent?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 381-394, June.
  2. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
  3. Lee,Hiro & Roland-Holst,David W. (ed.), 1998. "Economic Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521583664, November.
  4. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1," Econometrics Working Papers 0001, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Nair-Reichert, Usha & Weinhold, Diana, 2001. " Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 153-71, May.
  7. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  8. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair, 2002. "Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1433-1440.
  9. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2001. "Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature," IMF Working Papers 01/175, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hansen, Henrik & Rand, John, 2005. "On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series RP2005/31, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  12. Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810.
  13. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
  14. Chengang Wang & Xiaming Liu & Yingqi Wei, 2004. "Impact of Openness on Growth in Different Country Groups," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 567-585, 04.
  15. Abdur Chowdhury & George Mavrotas, 2006. "FDI and Growth: What Causes What?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 9-19, 01.
  16. Ana Cuadros & Vicente Orts & Maite Alguacil, 2004. "Openness and Growth: Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 167-192.
  17. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  18. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
  2. Tiwari, Aviral & Mutascu, Mihai, 2010. "Economic growth and and FDI in ASIA: A panel data approach," MPRA Paper 28172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mihai Mutascu, 2011. "Economic Growth and FDI in Asia: A Panel-Data Approach," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 173-187, September.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:21939. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.