Myung Chul Cho () (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) Hyoungsoo Zang () (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
Abstract
Confronted with economic difficulties and no alternative options for rehabilitating the economy without international help, North Korea seems to be inclining toward greater openness to South Korea and the U.S. There are increasing signs that North Korea's relationship with the U.S. and Japan, both political and economic, is likely to improve rather than to deteriorate as long as the political regime of North Korea remains stable. On the other hand, South Korea and the U.S. seem to be moving toward broader ranged assistance to North Korea. In the short term, there seems to be little chance for North Korea to undertake wide-ranging reforms, but it is also unlikely that the North Korean regime will collapse. In the longer term, however, so long as North Korea maintains political stability, it is likely to grow bolder with reforms, especially if South Korea and the international community remain supportive of these reforms. A scenario of reform will likely to entail the two Koreas entering into some period of peaceful coexistence, followed by a gradual economic integration with South Korea. On the other hand, if political stability in North Korea begins to weaken as a result of policies of broader-ranged openness, an implosion is likely to occur.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Microeconomics Working Papers with number
128.
Length: 63 pages Date of creation: Jun 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:eab:microe:128
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Find related papers by JEL classification: P41 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes R58 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Policy