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Deflationary Expansion: an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China

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Author Info
Gang Gong (School of Economics and Managment, Tsinghua University)
Justin Yifu Lin (China Center of Economic Research, Peking University)

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Abstract

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investment and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent time series variation of some key macroeconomic variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current insttutional environment of China.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/intranet/documents/39/658/CCER_Gong_05.pdf
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File Function: First Version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 658.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:658

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Related research
Keywords: Deflationary Expansion; Overshooting ; Business Cycle; China; growth; discrete time dynamics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Justin Lifu Lin, 2004. "Is China's Growth Real and Sustainable," Development Economics Working Papers 445, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  6. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, . "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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