Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Business Cycle in the Philippines

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sandra M. Leitner

    (PIDS)

Abstract

This paper provides an overall picture of the Philippine business cycles covering the period 1981 to 2003 by characterizing them in terms of volatility, co-movement and persistence. As a trend-cycle decomposition technique, the most frequently used Hodrick Prescott filter was applied. The period under investigation brought about three cycles : 1983-1989, 1989-1997 and 1997-2000 with initially very erratic but over time smoother fluctuations. In resemblance with industrialized countries, investment turns out to be the most volatile and consumption the least volatile national expenditure component, potentially pointing at Keynes assertion of animal spirits of investors as the source for the former phenomenon. Further, with the exception of prices, inflation and the terms of trade, all variables have strong and positive correlations with GDP. The strong negative price-output correlation, and the weak positive inflation-output correlation identify supply shocks as the triggering factor for observed business cycles, pointing at either technological change or drastic changes in the weather as possible spurring factors. Moreover, the investigation clearly reveals procyclical fiscal and monetary policy interventions, contradicting theoretical prescriptions of countercyclical stabilization policies to swiftly overcome economic recessions. Finally, all key macroeconomic variables show fairly low persistence, substantiating the Philippines popularity for its boom-bust cycles.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22644
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22644.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22644

Contact details of provider:
Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; Basic Characteristics and Source; Stabilization Policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.