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A Study on Financial Deficit and Declining Birthrate  From the Viewpoint of “Children as a Social Security Revenue Sourceâ€Â

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  • Kazumasa Oguro

    (PRI)

  • Shoichiro Yuyama

Abstract

With a declining birthrate and an aging population, Japan is increasingly finding itself in deeper financial difficulties. Recognizing these conditions, the government is now examining a framework for maintaining fiscal sustainability, mainly at the Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy. The predominant cause of such financial difficulties is the existence of financial deficit which has persevered for several years. In the background, however, it has also been largely influenced by the increasing social security cost . In actual fact, social security benefit made up 11.3% of the annual GDP in 1987, rising to 16.8% in 2003, which was an increase of about 1.5 times. On the other hand, the financial balance (relative to GDP) of the general government account accrued a 0.3% surplus in 1987, but a 7.7% deficit in 2003. This paper presents a hypothesis, as one of possible explanations, that the supplementing of social security benefits by the financial deficit also acts as a factor to encourage the decline in birthrate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Development Economics Working Papers with number 22605.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:22605

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Keywords: hypothesis; social security; Japan; Financial Deficit; Declining Birthrate;

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  1. Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Paul Schultz, T., 1987. "Fertility and investments in human capital : Estimates of the consequence of imperfect fertility control in Malaysia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 163-184.
  2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert F. Tamura, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Yoshio Higuchi & Jane Waldfogel & Masahiro Abe, 1999. "Family leave policies and women's retention after childbirth: Evidence from the United States, Britain, and Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 523-545.
  4. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2, June.
  5. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
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