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The Chronic Poor, the Transient Poor, and the Vulnerable in Indonesia Before and After the Crisis

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Author Info
Asep Suryahadi (SMERU Research Institute)
Sudarno Sumarto (SMERU Research Institute)

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Abstract

Using cross-section data from household surveys, we estimate several categories of household poverty and vulnerability in Indonesia by combining the available information on current consumption levels, estimates of vulnerability to poverty, and estimates of expected consumption levels. The results indicate that the level of vulnerability to poverty among Indonesian households after the crisis unambiguously increased from pre-crisis levels. Furthermore, not only did the poverty rate in Indonesia increase significantly because of the crisis, but also much of this increase was due to an increase in chronic poverty. Likewise, the number of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has almost tripled. As a result, the total number of households in the vulnerable category has jumped from 18 percent of the population in 1996 to more than one third of the population in 1999.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Development Economics Working Papers with number 113.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:113

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Related research
Keywords: poverty; consumption; Indonesia; vulnerability to poverty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - General Welfare
I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Lisa Cameron, 1999. "Survey of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 3-41, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sudarno Sumarto & Anna Wetterberg & Lant Pritchett, 1998. "The Social Impact of the Crisis in Indonesia - Results from a Nationwide Kecamatan Survey," Development Economics Working Papers 112, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Are the poor less well-insured? Evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1863, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1983. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," NBER Working Papers 1199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Glewwe, Paul & Hall, Gillette, 1998. "Are some groups more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks than others? Hypothesis tests based on panel data from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 181-206, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dreze, Jean & Srinivasan, P. V., 1997. "Widowhood and poverty in rural India: Some inferences from household survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 217-234, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado & André Braz Golgher, 2006. "Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td290, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  2. Schwarze, Stefan & Zeller, Manfred & Nuryartono, Nunung, 2006. "Income Sources, Poverty, and Forest Encroachment: Implications for Rural Development Policies in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25764, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2002. "La dynamique de pauvreté au Burkina Faso revisitée : pauvreté durable et transitoire, et vulnérabilité," Documents de travail 77, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
  4. Armida Alisjahbana & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2003. "Poverty Dynamics In Indonesia: Panel Data Evidence," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200303, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gunewardena, Dileni, 2004. "Improving poverty measurement in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 7695, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ari A. Perdana, 2005. "Risk management for the poor and vulnerable," CSIS Economics Working Paper Series WPE093, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Agus Priyambada & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2002. "What Happened to Child Labor in Indonesia during the Economic Crisis? The Trade-off between School and Work," Labor Economics Working Papers 87, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rafael Perez Ribas & Ana Flávia Machado, 2007. "Distinguishing Chronic Poverty from Transient Poverty in Brazil: Developing a Model for Pseudo-Panel Data," Working Papers 36, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. [Downloadable!]
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