Econometric Models and Causality Relationships Between Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Production in MOROCCO, TUNISIA and other Northern African Countries, 1950-2000

This article presents a general view of economic development in the countries of Magreb, analyzing the impact of manufacturing and imports on economoic growth and cycles, by means of cross correlations, Grangers´s causality analysis and dynamic models: for each country and for a panel of 4 Northern African countries. The analysis shows that these countries have low levels of trade among them and that they could improve their economic development with more industrial production and trade, both among themselves and with other areas as the Mediterranean countries of European Union. The EU agreements with Magreb are focused to foster free trade between North and South Mediterranean. Although this policy could be positive for development is not enough and EU should in our view have a more positive role to foster economic and educational cooperation with those countries in order to increase their income per inhabitant and their levels of employment. The alternative to the lack of cooperation policies could be the increase of disparities with EU and emigration pressures from Northern Africa towards most prosperous countries.