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Industria e Comercio Externo na Economia do Brasil, 1960-2000

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  • Guisan, Maria-Carmen

    ()

  • Cardim-Barata, Ana Sofia

Abstract

Este trabalho tem como objectivo a realização de uma analise da economia brasileira, em 1960-2000, numa perspectiva sectorial. Os modelos econometricos e o teste de causalidade de Hausman mostram que o incremento da produção manufactureira e necessario para lograr um desenvolvimento sustentado da produção não manufactureira, e analisamos se a relação bilateral e contemporânea, sendo a relação, fundamentalmente, unilateral contemporanea e bilateral não contemporânea. Os modelos mostram que o comercio externo e importante para a complementaridade existente entre os produtos importados e a produção propria. As importações têm um efeito medio muito positivo na produção propria, e portanto, e preciso incrementar a capacidade exportadora e importadora do Brasil para incrementar a capacidade produtiva. This article analyses the Brazilian economy during the period 1960-2000 from a sectoral perspective.Our econometric models, and the Hausman test of causality, show that the increase in manufacturing is important to get a sustained and high rate of growth of non manufacturing sectors, and we analyse if the relationship is bilateral and contemproaneuous. We find evidence in favour of a bilateral relation which is only unilateraly contemporaneous. We also analyse the relationship between industrial development and foreign trade, and the conclusions show that it is important for Brazil to increase both imports and exports in order to favour the growth of the Brazilian production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics. in its series Economic Development with number 73.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:73

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  1. Marcelo Neri & Gustavo Gonzaga & José Márcio Camargo, 1999. "Distribuição regional da efetividade do salário mínimo no Brasil," Textos para discussão 397, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. Rangel Galinari & Marco Aurélio Crocco & Mauro Borges Lemos & Maria Fernanda Diamante Basques, 2003. "O efeito das economias de aglomeração sobre os salários industriais: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiro," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td213, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  3. Marco Aurélio Crocco & Rangel Galinari & Fabiana Santos & Mauro Borges Lemos & Rodrigo Simões, 2003. "Metodologia de identificação de arranjos produtivos locais potenciais," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td212, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  4. Clélio Campolina Diniz, 2001. "A questão regional e as políticas governamentais no Brasil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td159, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  5. Ana Flávia Machado & Mônica Viegas Andrade & Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque, 2003. "Atraso Tecnológico, Atraso Social:uma Investigação Sobre as Relações Entre Produção Científica-Tecnológica e Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] d60, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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