Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches
AbstractThis analysis was performed with data from 10 European Union countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered, (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, and related models). The paper also analyses the evolution of Private Consumption in 15 European Union countries during the period 1960-2000, in comparison in the USA and Japan.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics. in its series Economic Development with number 54.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
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Private Consumption; Applied Econometric Models; European Economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Arranz, M., 1996. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Faculty of Economics 04, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies.
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
- Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
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